Alabama's heat wave slowly breaks with more storms and a cool front in sight

1 year ago 31

SO YOU’LL KNOW. FIRST, THIS IS WVTM 13. WEATHER BLAZING HOT TODAY AROUND HERE, 98 DEGREES IN BIRMINGHAM. FEELS LIKE 107. WE DID OFFICIALLY GET TO 100 AND BIRMINGHAM THIS AFTERNOON. EUTAW GOT TO 103 TUSCALOOSA SET A NEW RECORD HIGH AT 101 SHELBY COUNTY AIRPORT RIGHT ON THE ALABASTER CALERA LINE 101 AND BIRMINGHAM SHUTTLESWORTH INTERNATIONAL 100 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. THIS EVENING IS JUST A STEAM BATH. THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 9 P.M. A VERY MUGGY, HUMID START TO TOMORROW MORNING. AND THEN I THINK WE GET CLOSE TO 100 AGAIN TOMORROW. WHETHER YOU GET THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK OR NOT, THE HEAT INDEX IS STILL 105 PLUS BECAUSE OF THE HIGH HUMIDITY. AND THERE WILL BE A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. GOT ONE DOWN HERE CLOSE TO MARBURY AND CHILTON AND RIGHT ON THE CHILTON AUTAUGA COUNTY LINE. RIGHT NOW, MOST OF THE RAIN IS IN AUTAUGA COUNTY, BUT IT’S RAINING HEAVILY ON INTERSTATE 65, DOWN CLOSE TO THE MARBURY EXIT. CLANTON NORTHWARD. NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS STILL LINGERING AROUND PARTS OF TUSCALOOSA COUNTY AND THEN UP TOWARD BROOKWOOD, ONE LITTLE SHOWER SOUTHWEST OF OAKMAN AND WALKER COUNTY. AND THEN IF YOU LOOK RIGHT HERE OVER WEST JEFFERSON COUNTY, ESPECIALLY OUT HERE SOUTH OF OAK GROVE AND WEST OF BESSEMER, JUST NORTH OF WEST OF MCCULLOUGH, OUT HERE AROUND MUD CREEK ROAD AND JOHNS ROAD, THERE’S A LITTLE CONVERGENCE HAPPENING IN THE ATMOSPHERE. SO WE’LL PROBABLY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT, SAY, 45 MINUTES TO AN HOUR MAY NOT RAIN EVERYWHERE, BUT AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOMETHING HAPPENING CLOSE BY TO HELP KNOCK THE TEMPERATURE DOWN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. WE ARE STILL RAIN FREE. A FEW HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS LOCALLY, HEAVY RAIN, A LOT OF LIGHTNING WITH THEM. 5 P.M., THEY’RE STILL VERY HIT OR MISS JEFFERSON, SHELBY COUNTY, WE’VE GOT ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF A DOWNPOUR, A CHANCE OF RAIN IS A BIT BETTER UP TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. SO THERE’S A COLD FRONT HEADED SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AND THEN WE’VE GOT TO DEAL WITH THIS THING. THIS IS AN AREA OF INVESTIGATION OR AN AREA OF INTEREST THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS WATCHING NOW, GIVING IT A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AND WHAT WE THINK IS GOING TO HAPPEN HERE IS IT’S LIKELY THAT WE END UP WITH SOME KIND OF TROPICAL CYCLONE, PROBABLY A TROPICAL STORM THAT MAKES LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN THIS AREA HERE FROM FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY ALL THE WAY BACK DOWN TOWARD TAMPA. NOW, THAT’S A PRETTY BIG AREA. AND THERE’S A LOT OF DIFFERENT GUIDANCE THAT POINTS TO DIFFERENT THINGS. BUT ONE OF THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT WE’RE LOOKING AT AT THE MOMENT SPINS UP THIS STORM DOWN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND HEADS IT RIGHT UP TOWARD THE BIG BEND OF TAMPA. WE’LL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT. RIGHT NOW, IF THAT IS THE CASE, THEN OUR COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AND THEN IT’S LESS HUMID, LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND NOT QUITE AS BLAZING HOT INTO THE MIDDLE. AND END OF NEX

Near 100 degrees with heavy afternoon storms this weekend

Friday’s Excessive Heat Warning expires at 9 p.m., and a Heat Advisory replaces it on a hot, humid Saturday and Sunday. Some scattered storms help break the heat, a cool front heads south, and a tropical system develops in the Gulf. Check the video forecast for the latest.HOT, HUMID HIGH SCOOL HUDDLEAn Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for Jefferson, Tuscaloosa, Cullman, Walker, Bibb, Winston, Marion, Fayette, Lamar, Pickens, Greene, Hale, and Sumter Counties Friday evening. A Heat Advisory covers the rest of Central Alabama, including the Anniston-Gadsden area. Isolated thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and evening give a few communities a welcome cooldown, but the rest of us just stay hot. Temperatures fall from the mid-90s Friday afternoon to around 93 degrees between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m.: heat index is still around 100 degrees at kick off for most high school games this evening.High temperatures on Friday afternoon peaked in the 100s in Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Alabaster, and many other communities southwest of Jefferson and Shelby Counties:103 in Eutaw101 in Tuscaloosa (new record)101 in Alabaster100 at Birmingham-Shuttlesworth International98 in AnnistonIMPACT DAYS: SATURDAY AND SUNDAYAlabama’s heat wave slowly begins to break this weekend.The Impact Weather comes from heat and storms. A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central Alabama, and a few of the storms that develop in the heat of the day could briefly turn severe.Saturday is still blazing hot: highs near 100 degrees with a heat index around 105 to 110 degrees. The chance of an isolated storms goes up to 30% Saturday afternoon and evening, and some of those storms may have strong winds, intense lightning, and heavy rain.Sunday’s weather is similar: highs in the 90s, heat index around 100 to 105 degrees, and a chance of more storms. Those storms look more widespread and impactful, and some beneficial rain falls over most of North and Central Alabama. No, it is not a guarantee that you will get more than a few drops, but a lot of places get at least 15 to 20 minutes of rain (some up to 2 hours) Sunday afternoon and evening.COLD FRONT VS. TROPICAL ‘SOMETHING’Forecasts come with high-confidence and low-confidence statements like this: High Confidence: The worst of this heat wave is behind us as of Monday. Low Confidence: Temperatures drop as much as 5 to 10 degrees below average by Tuesday and Wednesday. High Confidence: Scattered storms develop around Alabama Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Rain will be heavy in spots but very unevenly distributed. Low Confidence: You will absolutely get 0.1” of rain at the least.We see a nice cool front coming into view Monday night into Tuesday. As it moves into the state, showers and storms become more and more likely; rain amounts vary greatly from place to place, with the highest totals likely coming south and east of Jefferson and Shelby Counties.There is also an expectation that a tropical depression or storm (probably Tropical Storm Idalia) will develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and heads northeast into the Gulf early next week. That is the real ‘unknown’ variable in the forecast that can gum up the works, so to speak.A tropical system often slows the progression of a cold front until it gets tangled in it; after that, it accelerates the front. What we still need to determine is how the two will interact.The most likely scenario as of now pushes the front far enough south that the storm gets ‘tangled’ in it over North or Central Florida. That would keep Alabama free of any major impacts and enhance the flow of drier and, yes, slightly cooler air into the state next week.Should the storm move farther north or the front be a bit slower, the Wednesday to Thursday forecast around here would change some: from cooler and drier to more humid and wetter. CLICK TO SEE THE 7-DAY FORECASTSTAY WEATHER AWARE For the latest Birmingham weather information and central Alabama's certified most accurate forecast, watch WVTM 13 News.Current Weather ConditionsHourly Forecast | 10-Day ForecastInteractive RadarBirmingham SkycamsLive Doppler RadarSign Up For Email Weather AlertsDownload the WVTM 13 AppDon't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

HOT, HUMID HIGH SCOOL HUDDLE

An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for Jefferson, Tuscaloosa, Cullman, Walker, Bibb, Winston, Marion, Fayette, Lamar, Pickens, Greene, Hale, and Sumter Counties Friday evening. A Heat Advisory covers the rest of Central Alabama, including the Anniston-Gadsden area.

Isolated thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and evening give a few communities a welcome cooldown, but the rest of us just stay hot. Temperatures fall from the mid-90s Friday afternoon to around 93 degrees between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m.: heat index is still around 100 degrees at kick off for most high school games this evening.

alabama weather forecast gulf of mexico tropical

High temperatures on Friday afternoon peaked in the 100s in Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Alabaster, and many other communities southwest of Jefferson and Shelby Counties:

birmingham officially hit 100 degrees for the first time this year on august 25, 2023

103 in Eutaw
101 in Tuscaloosa (new record)
101 in Alabaster
100 at Birmingham-Shuttlesworth International
98 in Anniston

IMPACT DAYS: SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

Alabama’s heat wave slowly begins to break this weekend.

The Impact Weather comes from heat and storms. A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of North and Central Alabama, and a few of the storms that develop in the heat of the day could briefly turn severe.

Saturday is still blazing hot: highs near 100 degrees with a heat index around 105 to 110 degrees. The chance of an isolated storms goes up to 30% Saturday afternoon and evening, and some of those storms may have strong winds, intense lightning, and heavy rain.

alabama weather forecast

Sunday’s weather is similar: highs in the 90s, heat index around 100 to 105 degrees, and a chance of more storms. Those storms look more widespread and impactful, and some beneficial rain falls over most of North and Central Alabama. No, it is not a guarantee that you will get more than a few drops, but a lot of places get at least 15 to 20 minutes of rain (some up to 2 hours) Sunday afternoon and evening.

COLD FRONT VS. TROPICAL ‘SOMETHING’

Forecasts come with high-confidence and low-confidence statements like this:

High Confidence: The worst of this heat wave is behind us as of Monday.
Low Confidence: Temperatures drop as much as 5 to 10 degrees below average by Tuesday and Wednesday.
High Confidence: Scattered storms develop around Alabama Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Rain will be heavy in spots but very unevenly distributed.
Low Confidence: You will absolutely get 0.1” of rain at the least.

We see a nice cool front coming into view Monday night into Tuesday. As it moves into the state, showers and storms become more and more likely; rain amounts vary greatly from place to place, with the highest totals likely coming south and east of Jefferson and Shelby Counties.

There is also an expectation that a tropical depression or storm (probably Tropical Storm Idalia) will develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and heads northeast into the Gulf early next week. That is the real ‘unknown’ variable in the forecast that can gum up the works, so to speak.

alabama weather forecast

A tropical system often slows the progression of a cold front until it gets tangled in it; after that, it accelerates the front. What we still need to determine is how the two will interact.

The most likely scenario as of now pushes the front far enough south that the storm gets ‘tangled’ in it over North or Central Florida. That would keep Alabama free of any major impacts and enhance the flow of drier and, yes, slightly cooler air into the state next week.

Should the storm move farther north or the front be a bit slower, the Wednesday to Thursday forecast around here would change some: from cooler and drier to more humid and wetter.