Alabama's still baking in the heat ahead of a Gulf tropical threat this week

As the first week of fall begins, brace for the convergence of sweltering heat and the looming threat of a tropical impacts from a hurricane moving north in the Gulf of Mexico. Check the video forecast for the latest.WATCHING THE GULFPTC 9 has formed in the Caribbean, with a high likelihood of becoming at least a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall Thursday.Where will it go? The current track forecast a landfall near the big bend of Florida, but without a closed center of circulation this forecast may change and shift in the coming days. Though precise tracking remains uncertain, coastal areas from Mobile to Tampa should brace for a potentially rapid intensification as the system is projected to surge northward toward the Gulf Coast.The most likely scenario is a landfall in the Big Bend of Florida.How strong will it get? The atmosphere will be primed, and the extremely warm Gulf waters will be ready to fuel a strengthening storm from Wednesday to Thursday. The current forecast brings it to Category 3 strength before landfall. That is a major hurricane. Forecasting intensity can be difficult, so be sure and check back for the most recent updates as the system moves northward in the Gulf.Some forecast model guidance predicts rapid intensification. Rapid intensification occurs when a storm’s peak wind speed increases by 30 knots (35 miles per hour) in 24 hours or less. How will it affect Alabama? The current forecast track would keep central Alabama on the west side of the storm. The weather varies greatly from one side of the storm to the other. The west side of the storm is typically drier with a lower severe threat, but we do expect to be near enough to have some breezy, wet weather on both Thursday and Friday this week. The Weather Prediction Center has already forecast that a large part of Alabama, Georgia and Florida are at risk of some flooding on Thursday and Friday.WHERE IS FALL?Sunday marked the first day of fall, but it also marked the 76th 90-degree day of 2024.We will have another day in the 90s on Tuesday before the combination of a cold front and a northbound tropical system drop temperatures and increase rain and thunderstorm coverage later this week.Tuesday will be hot and mostly dry, with only a few spotty storms in the forecast ahead of the cold front moving in late Tuesday evening. The approach of the front will stir up more scattered storms in North Alabama Tuesday. That will put places like Cullman, Hamilton, Russellville, The Shoals, Decatur and Huntsville in a better position to find some downpours than the Birmingham area.SCATTERED STORMS WEDNESDAYA cold front will stall over Alabama Wednesday, and some heavy afternoon and evening thunderstorms will take advantage of the inbound tropical moisture from the south.A few storms Wednesday afternoon could briefly become severe, with gusty winds, small hail, intense lightning and torrential downpours. The greatest threat from these heavy storms will be near and east of Interstate 65, including the Birmingham area, Anniston, Gadsden, Sylacauga, Clanton and Alexander City. TROPICAL IMPACT WEATHERDetails of the forecast for Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday will become clearer once we know more about how this tropical system will behave.Based on the most recent forecast track, it appears central Alabama will get some very heavy rain and it will be breezy.We will highlight Thursday and Friday as “Impact Days.” We call any day when the weather could cause you to change your routine an Impact Day.It does not always mean severe or destructive weather. In this case, we are pointing toward breezy, rainy weather on what is likely the western side of the tropical system.Both Thursday and Friday will have wind gusts over 20 mph and occasional tropical downpours. Some localized flooding will be possible, too. We will be able to nail down more solid expectations over the next few days.WEEKEND WEATHERThe upcoming weekend is a big one for events in Central Alabama. Fiesta Birmingham is Saturday.Alabama hosts Georgia on Saturday night while Oklahoma visits Auburn, and UAB takes on Navy at home.We do not expect a total rain-out of any events, but a weaker, slow-moving tropical low nearby will provide some occasional showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Daytime highs will be in the 70s and 80s with limited sunshine. For the latest Birmingham weather information and Central Alabama's certified most accurate forecast, watch WVTM 13 News.Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, X, formerly Twitter, and Instagram.