Be on the lookout for some heavy storms on Saturday across Alabama

1 year ago 48

Impact Day: Saturday's cold front brings a threat of storms

SO YOU’LL KNOW. FIRST, THIS IS WVTM 13 WEATHER ALL QUIET AROUND HERE AT THIS MOMENT. BUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THERE WILL BE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. YOU CAN ALREADY SEE SOME OF THIS HAPPENING UP INTO ARKANSAS, WEST TENNESSEE, INTO KENTUCKY, RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THIS RAIN MARCHING SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND THERE’S DRIER AIR IN PLACE AT THE MOMENT. BUT WHAT HAPPENS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING CHANGES A LOT OF THE WAY THINGS HAVE BEEN WORKING TODAY. THE COOLER, DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE EAST, VERY WARM, MUGGY AIR OUT TO THE WEST. AND IT’S THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THAT ARE GOING TO WIN OUT TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP RIGHT BACK UP INTO THE LOW 80S AFTER HAVING ONLY BEEN IN THE 70S. TODAY, IT’S CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S, WE’LL SEE SHOWERS INCREASING MAINLY NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM SATURDAY MORNING, SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S. WE’RE WATCHING A BIG AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH TOMORROW, INCLUDING MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE GREEN HERE REPRESENTS A MARGINAL RISK. THAT’S THE LEVEL, ONE OF FIVE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. MARGINAL ESSENTIALLY MEANS THAT WE EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND A HANDFUL OF THOSE COULD BE SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS THAT COULD BE UPWARDS OF 58MPH OR HIGHER AND HAIL LARGER THAN A QUARTER IN DIAMETER. HERE’S WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE WHEN WE LOOK AT SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TOMORROW MORNING. THIS HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN BEFORE 10 A.M. OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE THROUGH LIMESTONE. MORGAN, LAWRENCE, WINSTON, MARION FRANKLIN, COLBURN AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES. THOSE STORMS START SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN TEN AND NOON AND ALTHOUGH YOU SEE A LOT OF STORMS TO THE WEST AND NOT MUCH OVER HERE TOWARD THE EAST, THIS VERY WELL COULD FLIP FLOP JUST A LITTLE BIT. IN REALITY, FORECAST MODELS DO A REALLY GOOD JOB OF FINDING THE ENVIRONMENT THEY DON’T OFTEN DO A GREAT JOB WITH INDIVIDUAL POSITIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SO JUST KEEP THAT IN MIND. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY, THAT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES FARTHER SOUTH AND SOME OF THOSE COULD HAVE HIGH WINDS, HAIL AND A LOT OF DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. GENERAL TIMELINE HERE, 6 A.M. TO NOON AND THE LIGHT GREEN FROM BIRMINGHAM SOUTHWARD, 10 A.M. TO 4 P.M. IS THE PRIMARY TIMELINE. AND REMEMBER, IT’S MAINLY FOR WIND, HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH A LOT OF LIGHTNING. TOMORROW’S HIGH AT 81 SUNDAY. IT’S DRIER, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM. THEN MONDAY, MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS ARE GOING TO HANG AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL. MOST SPOTS WILL GET SOME RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT REALLY STARTS TO THIN OUT AFTER WEDNESDAY IN ORDER TO REALIZE WHAT’S THAT EASTER OFF AND ON TODAY. I THINK YOU’RE LOOKING GOOD. I

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Impact Day: Saturday's cold front brings a threat of storms

⚠️ IMPACT WEATHER: SATURDAY⚠️ A cold front brings widespread rain and storms Saturday, and a few of those storms could grow severe with strong wind gusts, hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Check the video forecast for the latest.SHORT-TERM THROUGH SATURDAYMore storms develop on Saturday, and some of them may be severe in the afternoon and early evening. Ahead of the rain, temperatures climb to the upper 70s and lower 80s with a southwest wind around 10 to 15 miles per hour.The Storm Prediction Center outlines a risk of storms with hail and strong winds Saturday: What kind of storms: the ‘MARGINAL RISK’ of severe storms on Saturday includes the threat of wind gusts over 58 MPH and hail larger than a quarter. That’s like what we had from some individual storms across the state earlier this week. These storms will not be very widespread; we will be watching for a severe threat on a storm-by-storm basis. Almost all of us get some rain (around 0.10” to 0.60” on average with some higher amounts underneath the heaviest downpours). What time will they get here: showers and some spotty storms develop ahead of the cold front by sunrise over Northwest Alabama and move southeast through the day. The greatest chance of a severe storm comes around noon through 8 PM in Central Alabama, but a few leftover storms could linger on through 10 PM Saturday. Timing to a specific community will vary significantly because of (1) the spotty nature of the storms and (2) the fact it’s not just a single ‘line’ with a definite start/stop point. Saturday gets warm and humid: highs in the lower 80s, a southwest breeze up to 20 miles per hour, and that threat of a few strong storms.DRIER ON SUNDAY NORTH, STILL DAMP SOUTHSunday stays dry for the northern half of the state, but our cold front just is not strong enough to clear everyone of the humidity and threat of a shower or brief afternoon thunderstorm. The division between showers and no showers sets up just south of Interstate 20: no rain north of Birmingham, some showers south, and an even better chance south of the Montgomery area.Drier air also makes a high in the upper 70s to lower 80s feel comfortable Sunday afternoon under a partly to mostly sunny sky.UNSETTLED PATTERN, MORE SHOWERS COMINGDays ago, it appeared next week would be dry. Now, it appears we will have some drier days and wetter days but no clear-cut break from a daily chance of some showers.What changed? A slight shift in the forecast position of a ‘ridge’ (think high pressure, downward motion in the atmosphere suppressing cloud/rain development) steers a slow-moving upper air disturbance over Alabama on Monday and Tuesday.The eventual path of that disturbance determines how much rain we get. Monday looks rather wet at this point with widespread showers moving in during the afternoon and evening. Monday night into Tuesday morning features a stripe of heavier rain over eastern Alabama, and then as the disturbance slowly moves away, the chance of rain decreases to just isolated, pop-up, heat-of-the-day, afternoon showers and storms from Wednesday to Friday.So no, there’s no single day next week that looks 100% guaranteed to be dry; however, we do see more sun and less rain later in the week.CLICK TO SEE THE 7-DAY FORECAST—STAY WEATHER AWAREGet the free WVTM 13 app and turn on the alerts for the latest weather updates.For the latest Birmingham weather information and central Alabama's certified most accurate forecast, watch WVTM 13 News.Current Weather ConditionsHourly Forecast | 10-Day ForecastInteractive RadarBirmingham SkycamsLive Doppler RadarSign Up For Email Weather AlertsDownload the WVTM 13 AppDon't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

⚠️ IMPACT WEATHER: SATURDAY⚠️ A cold front brings widespread rain and storms Saturday, and a few of those storms could grow severe with strong wind gusts, hail, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. Check the video forecast for the latest.

SHORT-TERM THROUGH SATURDAY

More storms develop on Saturday, and some of them may be severe in the afternoon and early evening. Ahead of the rain, temperatures climb to the upper 70s and lower 80s with a southwest wind around 10 to 15 miles per hour.

The Storm Prediction Center outlines a risk of storms with hail and strong winds Saturday:

alabama weather forecast

What kind of storms: the ‘MARGINAL RISK’ of severe storms on Saturday includes the threat of wind gusts over 58 MPH and hail larger than a quarter. That’s like what we had from some individual storms across the state earlier this week. These storms will not be very widespread; we will be watching for a severe threat on a storm-by-storm basis. Almost all of us get some rain (around 0.10” to 0.60” on average with some higher amounts underneath the heaviest downpours).
What time will they get here: showers and some spotty storms develop ahead of the cold front by sunrise over Northwest Alabama and move southeast through the day. The greatest chance of a severe storm comes around noon through 8 PM in Central Alabama, but a few leftover storms could linger on through 10 PM Saturday. Timing to a specific community will vary significantly because of (1) the spotty nature of the storms and (2) the fact it’s not just a single ‘line’ with a definite start/stop point.

Saturday gets warm and humid: highs in the lower 80s, a southwest breeze up to 20 miles per hour, and that threat of a few strong storms.

DRIER ON SUNDAY NORTH, STILL DAMP SOUTH

Sunday stays dry for the northern half of the state, but our cold front just is not strong enough to clear everyone of the humidity and threat of a shower or brief afternoon thunderstorm. The division between showers and no showers sets up just south of Interstate 20: no rain north of Birmingham, some showers south, and an even better chance south of the Montgomery area.

Drier air also makes a high in the upper 70s to lower 80s feel comfortable Sunday afternoon under a partly to mostly sunny sky.

UNSETTLED PATTERN, MORE SHOWERS COMING

Days ago, it appeared next week would be dry. Now, it appears we will have some drier days and wetter days but no clear-cut break from a daily chance of some showers.

What changed? A slight shift in the forecast position of a ‘ridge’ (think high pressure, downward motion in the atmosphere suppressing cloud/rain development) steers a slow-moving upper air disturbance over Alabama on Monday and Tuesday.

The eventual path of that disturbance determines how much rain we get. Monday looks rather wet at this point with widespread showers moving in during the afternoon and evening. Monday night into Tuesday morning features a stripe of heavier rain over eastern Alabama, and then as the disturbance slowly moves away, the chance of rain decreases to just isolated, pop-up, heat-of-the-day, afternoon showers and storms from Wednesday to Friday.

So no, there’s no single day next week that looks 100% guaranteed to be dry; however, we do see more sun and less rain later in the week.