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WELCOME BACK. HEY, WHEN YOU THINK OF GROUNDHOG DAY, WHAT COMES TO MIND? THE ANIMALS, THE ICONIC MOVIE FROM THE 90S. REMEMBER THAT ONE? THE DAY OFTEN PUTS A FOCUS ON THE MOST FAMOUS HERALD OF THEM ALL, PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL. YEAH, SO RIGHTFULLY SO. THE DAY ACTUALLY ORIGINATED IN PENNSYLVANIA AND IN PUNXSUTAWNEY. GROUNDHOG DAY ISN’T JUST ONE DAY FOR THE CITY’S GROUNDHOG CLUB. IT’S MARKED BY A MULTI DAY CELEBRATION THAT EVEN INCLUDES A GROUNDHOG BALL. AND THIS YEAR WILL BE EXTRA SPECIAL DAY FOR PHIL, AS IT’S HIS FIRST GROUNDHOG DAY AS A FATHER HERE IN ALABAMA. IT’S A SAND MOUNTAIN SAM WHO’S OFTEN GOING TO STEAL THE SPOTLIGHT. YET NOW THE BELOVED ALABAMA OPOSSUM HAS BEEN DOING THIS FOR SEVERAL YEARS. HE’S EXPECTED TO GIVE HIS ANNUAL PREDICTION IN ALBERTVILLE. LAST YEAR, HE PREDICTED AN EARLY SPRING, SO SAM IS SET TO GIVE HIS TAKE ON THIS YEAR. THIS SUNDAY MORNING AT OLD MILL PARK HERE IN BIRMINGHAM, WE HAVE JILL THE OPOSSUM. SHE WILL BE AT THE BIRMINGHAM ZOO THIS SUNDAY AS A SPECIAL GUEST FOR THE ZOO’S GROUNDHOG DAY CELEBRATION. YOU CAN SEE HER PREDICTION AT 10:00. THAT IS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE ZOO PLAZA. SO JOINING US NOW, WVTM 13 METEOROLOGIST JORDAN WEST JORDAN, THIS IS THE BIG QUESTION THAT WE WANT ANSWERED. ARE THE ANIMALS RIGHT. WELL SOME OF THEM ARE. SOME AREN’T PHIL. NOT SO MUCH OF A GOOD TRACK RECORD. 35% LIKELY THAT HE’LL BE CORRECT AS THE PAST 20 YEARS. SO FAR HE’S BEEN CORRECT. BUT 65% INCORRECT. SO OVERALL, PHIL ISN’T THE BEST METEOROLOGIST OUT THERE. HOWEVER, ALABAMA’S OWN SAND MOUNTAIN SAM HE’S GOT A PRETTY GOOD TRACK RECORD NOW. HE’S ONLY BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE PAST 12 YEARS. BUT AND I KNOW THIS IS A LOT OF NUMBERS TO FIGURE OUT WHETHER OR NOT HE’S BEEN ACCURATE, WE FIRST NEED TO LOOK AT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR, SAY, BIRMINGHAM, ALABAMA, FOR EXAMPLE, IN MARCH. THAT’S 56 DEGREES. SO WE’RE LOOKING AT WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 56. THAT’S WHEN THERE IS AN EARLIER SPRING AND WHEN THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MARCH IS BELOW 56. WE’RE TALKING ABOUT LATE WINTER. WELL HE’S PREDICTED A LATE WINTER IN 2013 AND 2014 AND THAT’S ABOUT IT. BUT THE OUTCOME HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT. THERE HAVE BEEN TWO INSTANCES WHERE HE WAS WRONG BACK IN 2019, AND IT LOOKS LIKE 2020. AS YOU CAN SEE HERE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE 20 TEENS. AND OVERALL, THAT MEANS HE WILL. HE WAS ABOUT INCORRECT 15% OF THE TIME AND WAS CORRECT 85% OF THE TIME. SO IF I HAD TO CHOOSE AN ANIMAL, IT WOULD DEFINITELY BE SAM. HE HASN’T BEEN DOING THIS ALL THAT LONG, BUT SO FAR HE’S BEEN THE MOST CORRECT. IT LOOKS LIKE HE WILL MAKE HIS DECISION. COMING UP ON GROUNDHOG DAY THIS SUNDAY. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HE PREDICTS. TRAVIS BRITTANY MY BETS ON SAM. THOSE ARE GOOD ODDS, RIGHT? SO I JUST LOVE TO SAY THAT I LOVE WHEN OUR WEATHER TEAM CAN DO THESE SCIENTIFIC, ANALYTICAL EXPLANATIONS REALLY IN-DEPTH BECAUSE THEY GO ALL THE WAY IN. WE APPRECIATE YOU, JORDAN, BUT SHOUT OUT TO SAM AND SHOUT OUT TO JORDAN. YEAH WE’LL SEE. I’M HOPING FOR AN EARLY SPRING.
How Accurate are Groundhog Weather Predictions?
Punxsutawney Phil prepares his forecast for Groundhog Day, but Alabama's possum, Sand Mountain Sam, has a better track record.
Punxsutawney Phil prepares his forecast for Groundhog Day, but Alabama's possum, Sand Mountain Sam, has a better track record.Punxsutawney Phil resides in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, but once a year, the spotlight shines bright across his fur. Whether or not that spotlight, in this case, the sun, produces a shadow, traditions hold a later winter for the year.HOW ACCURATE IS PHIL THE GROUNDHOG?According to groundhog lore, Phil is the oldest rodent who can predict the weather. However, many question his forecast. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Phil's forecast did not materialize 65% of the time.HOW ACCURATE IS ALABAMA'S POSSUM?While Pennsylvania looks forward to its groundhog annually, Alabama respects its possum. Sand Mountain Sam lives in Albertville, Alabama, and he's been forecasting the past 12-13 years. Like Phil, if Sam sees his shadows, Alabama should expect a late winter.Despite Sam's shyness and less-experience, he remains a better forecaster. While NOAA ran the numbers on Phil, calculating Sam's accuracy can be complicated.Here's one scenario, similar to NOAA's approachAccording to the National Weather Service, the average temperature in March in Birmingham is 56 degrees. This is the official climatological average for the month of March with the 30-year data from 1991 to 2020. If the average March temperature rises above 56 degrees, you can consider an early spring. If the average March temperature drops below 56 degrees, you can consider a late winter. The results shows Sam's forecast holds an 85% success rate. Both Sam, Phil, and many other animals will make their forecast Sunday on Groundhog day.
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. —
Punxsutawney Phil prepares his forecast for Groundhog Day, but Alabama's possum, Sand Mountain Sam, has a better track record.
Punxsutawney Phil resides in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, but once a year, the spotlight shines bright across his fur. Whether or not that spotlight, in this case, the sun, produces a shadow, traditions hold a later winter for the year.
HOW ACCURATE IS PHIL THE GROUNDHOG?
According to groundhog lore, Phil is the oldest rodent who can predict the weather. However, many question his forecast. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Phil's forecast did not materialize 65% of the time.
HOW ACCURATE IS ALABAMA'S POSSUM?
While Pennsylvania looks forward to its groundhog annually, Alabama respects its possum. Sand Mountain Sam lives in Albertville, Alabama, and he's been forecasting the past 12-13 years. Like Phil, if Sam sees his shadows, Alabama should expect a late winter.
Despite Sam's shyness and less-experience, he remains a better forecaster. While NOAA ran the numbers on Phil, calculating Sam's accuracy can be complicated.
Here's one scenario, similar to NOAA's approach
- According to the National Weather Service, the average temperature in March in Birmingham is 56 degrees. This is the official climatological average for the month of March with the 30-year data from 1991 to 2020.
- If the average March temperature rises above 56 degrees, you can consider an early spring.
- If the average March temperature drops below 56 degrees, you can consider a late winter.
The results shows Sam's forecast holds an 85% success rate. Both Sam, Phil, and many other animals will make their forecast Sunday on Groundhog day.
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