The Atlantic hurricane season will bring an average number of ocean storms and hurricanes this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said on Thursday.
Noaa forecasters estimate 12 to 17 named storms of which five to nine of those will develop into hurricanes and one to four will become major hurricanes during the 1 June to 30 November season.
The guidance came as experts considered the possible impacts this year of the El Niño weather system, which can dampen hurricane activity, and increasingly warm ocean temperatures, which can make storms more powerful.
“What it boils down to is: which is going to win or do they just cancel each other out and you end up with a near-normal season?” said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. “I respect them both.”
A tropical storm brings sustained winds of at least 39 miles per hour (63km/h), a hurricane has winds of at least 74mph and major hurricanes pack winds of at least 111mph and can bring devastating damage.
Last year broke a six-year string of above-normal hurricane seasons with the strongest that year being Hurricane Ian, which spawned 150mph winds and hit Florida and South Carolina.
At least 148 deaths were attributed to Hurricane Ian.
This year there is a 40% chance of a normal hurricane season and a 30% chance each for an above-average or below-average season, the Noaa administrator, Rick Spinrad, said in a media briefing.
Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures “are warmer than we were last year and as warm as we were in 2020”, said Matthew Rosencrans, Noaa’s lead hurricane seasonal forecaster.
No matter how many storms there are, forecasters and disaster officials remind US coastal residents from Texas to New England and people in the Caribbean and Central America that it only takes one hurricane to be a catastrophe.
El Niño is a natural temporary warming of the Pacific that happens every few years and changes weather worldwide. Climate models predict that as the world warms, El Niños get stronger.
Decades of observation show that generally the Atlantic is quieter with fewer storms during El Niño years.
El Niño’s warmer waters makes warmer air over the Pacific reach higher up in the atmosphere, influencing winds and creating strong upper-level winds that can decapitate storms, killing them, Klotzbach said.
English (US)