Some clouds Tuesday, then heat builds ahead of a possible tropical threat

Clouds thin after Monday with a warm up on the way. We will be watching the Caribbean and Gulf for tropical development, too. Check the video forecast for the latest.TUESDAYA large, sprawling area of low pressure that was, at one time, the powerful Hurricane Helene spins north of Alabama for the first part of the week.Tuesday begins with some patchy fog. The lingering low pressure keeps some clouds in the forecast on Tuesday with an isolated shower chance.While a few showers are possible during the early afternoon, we are not forecasting any widespread or heavy rain. Better chance to see a passing shower is from Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston northward.Birmingham’s average high for Sept. 30 and Oct. 1 is around 82 degrees, and the average low is around 60 degrees. Temperatures will be close to average as clouds limit the sun to a degree, but it will get hotter as the week passes. MIDWEEK HEAT More sunshine and drier air means mornings will be comfortable with lows in the lower to middle 60s. The afternoons will be sunny and hot for Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week and a few spots may even touch 90 degrees. FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALLFootball weather on Friday night could be a little damp, though we aren't expecting a washout. You can expect a mostly cloudy sky and a mild evening as temperatures fall through the 70s.THE WEEKEND The weekend forecast looks good for now. Temperatures will be seasonable on both Saturday and Sunday without a threat of any widespread rain. It will be a busy weekend at Talladega with a number of events happening. The Yellawood 500 takes place Sunday afternoon. EYES ON THE GULF A weak area of low-pressure looks to traverse the northern Gulf sometime between Thursday and Friday. Tropical moisture will be steered northward into Alabama leading to a spread of clouds and some disorganized showers. The greater threat for a tropical storm appears to hold off until early next week. It's a potential concern for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida.The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking Tropical Depression Joyce and Tropical Storm Kirk in the Atlantic. Neither storm poses a threat to the United States.Both major global forecast models (GFS and European) reveal a tropical system moving into the northern Gulf by next Monday. Exact placement is unknown at this time as well as possible impacts. What do we know right now?There are no specific details at this moment outlining when, where, and how severe a Gulf tropical storm or hurricane could be in the next five to seven days. However, the development of at least a tropical storm is likely. This storm will be driven northward by an upper low to the west and a ridge to the east through the weekend. What are we waiting to learn?Later this week, the situation will become clearer, and we can confidently state who might or might not be in the path of this developing system. We need to observe more precisely where the upper low and the ridge will be positioned and what role the jet stream will play. At this point, we see the players on the field, but the game has not kicked off yet.BEACH FORECASTThe weather at the Alabama Gulf Coast will be quiet for most of the week, but we will be watching for a tropical threat in the not-so-distant future:Midweek: Expect generally dry weather with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s, possibly reaching 90. Nights will be cooler, with lows in the lower-to-mid 60s inland and upper 60s to near 70 along the coast.Late week: Moisture will return mid-to-late week, bringing higher chances of rain and storms, particularly in the afternoons. Temperatures will slightly decrease with highs in the lower-to-mid 80s and similar lows. Weekend: Watch for potential development of low pressure in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf. This could bring an increase in rainfall and a higher threat of large swells and rip currents along the immediate coastline. WHEN DO WE GET SWEATER WEATHER?Answering that question won't be quick or easy.September typically clings to the heat of summer, while October usually ushers in cooler, crisper air.At the start, October will be slightly warmer than normal, with highs near 80 and lows around 60.There are indications of cooler weather reaching as far south as Alabama between October 10 and 15. However, this cool snap depends heavily on the development of a potential tropical system in the southeastern United States.In short, don't expect to need sweaters anytime soon.For the latest Birmingham weather information and Central Alabama's certified most accurate forecast, watch WVTM 13 News.Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, X, formerly Twitter, and Instagram.