Tropical Atlantic: the next powerful storm developing in the tropics this week

MWVTM 13 chief meteorologist Jason Simpson and wanted to check in on what's going on out in the tropics on this Monday afternoon, big red swath there. This is *** really impressive looking disturbance that has *** 90% chance of developing into at least *** tropical depression in the next two days. And most likely it's going to become *** tropical storm or potentially even *** major hurricane in the Atlantic within the next 5 to 7 days. Now there is another disturbance farther west of that one, but I want to focus on this one because it's got potential to churn up the Atlantic. And there is some question as to whether or not it's going to have what it takes to maybe even be an east coast kind of storm. Will it won't it odds are against it being *** big deal on the east coast? But look at this, I mean, that's *** buzz saw out in the Atlantic by next Tuesday, not today, not tomorrow, but about eight days from now. Uh *** potentially major category three or higher hurricane in the Atlantic, north of the Dominican Republic, probably northwest of the Bahamas. So what happens with this thing, you can see at this point, we are, uh, you know, we're far enough from Miami that it's not really *** big deal there. It's over 800 miles from Miami at that point. Uh, and, and you know, the same thing here, Jacksonville, uh, if it were to make *** left hand turn by 1000 miles at that point, it would be *** big deal for Jacksonville. So I think we got pretty good confidence that this is not gonna be *** Florida storm, but could it be *** Carolina storm? Well, let's look at the upper air pattern over North America in the next say 7 to 8 days. This is Sunday. We will have *** cool front come through central Alabama and really most of the eastern US are going to be impacted by that here in the next couple of days. So by Thursday, we get this cold front coming in and you know, there's an old adage that cold fronts don't like hurricanes. So I think the Gulf of Mexico is going to be pretty quiet here in the short term beyond Sunday. What happens with this swirl out here? Uh That is likely *** major hurricane by that point, it's north of Puerto Rico. So there are *** few options for this and what you see on this map, the winds at 500 millibars roughly 20,000 ft, that's jet stream level kind of wind. And what I've drawn in is where the trough will be in the eastern US by that point. Uh So you've got this area here over, um, from Birmingham up to Toronto where there's *** deep trough in the jet stream, will that be in the right position to either draw this storm toward the east coast? And it would probably be *** New England or *** Canada kind of issue versus *** Florida. South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina issue. When you're this far out, when you're 10 days away, it's impossible to call it off. So, if you're in the Carolinas, if you got interest over that way next week, something to watch out for this week. It's not *** problem at all. Myrtle Beach, Cape Hatteras, Cape Beer, Wilmington, everything's good. Uh, well, look for this to maybe be an issue down the road for New England or up to Canada. But most likely it's going to be that right hand option where it gets kicked off into the North Atlantic. Kind of never to be heard from again. Well, here, closer to home, we've got *** cold front coming. I mentioned that we'll have some showers and thunderstorms out ahead of that over the next few days. Uh, *** better chance of storms Wednesday into Thursday. Some of them could be fairly heavy too. Occasionally, these September systems can overperform just *** little bit, but as the front then comes in, it's going to knock the storms out of here by Thursday night. And I think going into the weekend, we're looking at *** nicer scenario, setting up how much nicer behind the front. Well, keep in mind it is September daytime, high temperatures average upper eighties, low nineties overnight, lows are usually upper sixties, low seventies. So we're not too far off of that. I think technically we might be *** little bit above average going into the weekend, but the morning should feel nice the afternoon, still toasty but dry with lower humidity and we may bring back *** brief shower or two toward Monday of next week. That's as that next deep trough starts to develop over the eastern part of the country. So the bottom line here is that we will be watching what happens with that storm that's potentially approaching the east coast. Most likely it's going to shift off toward the east into the Atlantic. But something to keep an eye on as we approach that peak of hurricane season around September 10th, have *** great evening.