ALERT DAYS: Severe threat of tornadoes, hail, flooding across Alabama Friday and Saturday

WVTM 13 LIVE DOPPLER RADAR | UPLOAD YOUR WEATHER PHOTOS | WAYS TO STAY SAFE | GET WEATHER NOTIFICATIONS | WATCHES VS WARNING | PREPARING YOUR HOME | STORM SHELTERSWVTM 13 meteorologists are tracking a severe weather outbreak in Alabama from Thursday through Saturday with the threat of hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.IMPACT DAY: Thursday, March 13 - scattered storms across Alabama, a few could be severeALERT DAYS: Friday, March 14, and Saturday, March 15 - a substantial threat of severe storms, including tornadoes, intense wind gusts and large hail Below is the timeline.IMPACT DAY: THURSDAYAn ‘Impact Day’ means that the weather could have a disruptive effect on your normal daily routine. LOCATION:Scattered strong storms are possible through Thursday evening. One particular storm has been producing large hail in Franklin County, and another cluster of storms east of The Shoals has a history of both strong wind gusts and hail.Those storms are moving southeast through 10 p.m.TIMING:A round of storms developing over North Alabama will move southeast into the Birmingham area Thursday evening. THREATS:A few storms have already produced large hail today, and these have that potential, too. One particular thunderstorm accumulated nearly two inches of hail in Winfield, Alabama Thursday morning. There is also a chance of a brief strong wind gust up to 60 mph.ALERT DAY: FRIDAYWe call a day an "Alert Day" when the weather could be life threatening and you need to be aware of the latest changes.LOCATION:The greatest threat of severe weather on Friday will be after 9 p.m. mainly north of Interstate 20 including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Oneonta, Cullman, Jasper, Haleyville, Hamilton, Huntsville, Deactur, Athens, and The Shoals.TIMING:Most of Friday will be sunny, breezy and warm with no major weather problems.Alabama's next round of threatening weather will move in from the west after 9 p.m. Friday.A severe weather outbreak will be ongoing Friday afternoon and evening west of Alabama. Those storms will begin to move into the western counties of Alabama late Friday evening after 9 p.m. through about 7 a.m. Saturday.Since these storms will be in the area overnight, be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio set, tuned and ready to receive a warning as well as the WVTM 13 app on your device to get the very latest alerts. You should not rely on an outdoor siren to wake you up during a warning.THREATS: Storms in Alabama late Friday night through 7 a.m. Saturday could bring hail, strong wind gusts, and a tornado could develop from any of the more intense storms in this line. ALERT DAY: SATURDAYWe call a day an "Alert Day" when the weather could be life threatening and you need to be aware of the latest changes.LOCATION:TIMING:There will be a round of storms ongoing Saturday morning in North and Central Alabama. These storms could have an impact on afternoon development, but we do not think they will be enough to stop the threat later in the day.A rough estimate of a timeline would start our "main" event as early as 11 a.m. Saturday and it could last through 1 a.m. Sunday. This will be a long-duration severe weather threat.THREATS:Saturday, March 15, will bring a significant risk of severe weather to the South including strong wind gusts over 70 miles per hour, large hail, and tornadoes. Some tornadoes could be strong and long-track (more than 15-20 mile path length). A system like this has the potential to be a higher-end severe weather threat in Alabama and Mississippi. Both supercells (individual rotating severe storms) and a squall line are possible in this kind of environment. Forecast guidance suggests the risk strong tornadoes, EF-2 or higher. Be sure you have at least two reliable ways to get warnings and know what your plan will be if a severe storm approaches.CONFIDENCE:We have an unusually high confidence in the outcome of Saturday's storm system because of the balanced look it shows in forecast model guidance. The setup has been presented in a very consistent manner showing the right balance of fuel (CAPE, instability) interacting with a strongly "sheared" environment (wind speed increasing and changing direction above the ground).These factors will likely make Saturday's threat a "classic" severe weather setup for the South:(1) A strong jet stream in the right position. (2) A small but strengthening area of low pressure near Interstate 40 from Memphis to Nashville and a very strong "low level jet" (strong burst of wind about a mile above the surface).There are always things that can disrupt systems like this. Right now, we do not see anything that looks like a clear failure point. If it does come in balanced as we expect, this could be a very rough day in Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia.The "Energy Helicity Index" shows just how balanced this looks. What does it mean?Think of it this way: if storms are happening in an environment like this, they have a high chance of being severe and capable of producing tornadoes. These two rounds of rain and storms also provide some hefty rainfall totals, and it could be enough for some flooding with isolated spots getting more than 2 to 3 inches.For the latest weather coverage for your area, click here. And stay updated with alerts in the WVTM 13 app. You can download it here.