IMPACT DAY: Storms with large hail move across Alabama this evening

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. —

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WVTM 13 meteorologists are tracking a severe weather outbreak in Alabama from Thursday through Saturday with the chance of tornadoes, hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

• IMPACT DAY: Thursday, March 13 - scattered storms across Alabama, a few could be severe
• ALERT DAYS: Friday, March 14, and Saturday, March 15 - a substantial threat of severe storms, including tornadoes, intense wind gusts and large hail

IMPACT DAY: THURSDAY

An ‘Impact Day’ means that the weather could have a disruptive effect on your normal daily routine.

A few showers and storms drift into Alabama from the west and move southeast throughout the day. As temperatures warm into the afternoon, additional storms will form.

Only a few storms will develop on Thursday in Central Alabama, but the ones that occur could produce large hail.

TIMING: A round of scattered heavy thunderstorms over North Alabama Thursday afternoon moves southeast into the Birmingham area after sunset.

IMPACTS: Locally, heavy storms will produce heavy rain and frequent lightning. A few storms could reach severe limits with damaging winds or large hail.

ALERT DAY: FRIDAY

We call a day an "Alert Day" when the weather could be life threatening and you need to be aware of the latest changes.

Most of Friday will be sunny, breezy and warm with no major weather problems.

Alabama's next round of threatening weather will move in from the west after 9 p.m. Friday.

TIMING: A severe weather outbreak will be ongoing Friday afternoon and evening west of Alabama. Those storms will begin to move into the western counties of Alabama late Friday evening after 9 p.m. through about 7 a.m. Saturday.

Since these storms will be in the area overnight, be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio set, tuned and ready to receive a warning as well as the WVTM 13 app on your device to get the very latest alerts. You should not rely on an outdoor siren to wake you up during a warning.

IMPACTS: Storms in Alabama late Friday night through 7 a.m. Saturday could bring hail, strong wind gusts, and a tornado could develop from any of the more intense storms in this line.

Places like Hamilton, Carbon Hill, Jasper, Double Springs, Fayette, Tuscaloosa and Aliceville have a greater chance of severe storms compared to areas further east.

ALERT DAY: SATURDAY

We call a day an "Alert Day" when the weather could be life threatening and you need to be aware of the latest changes.

A significant severe weather outbreak is now likely in Alabama on Saturday, March 15. Hazards include tornadoes, strong wind gusts over 70 mph and large hail. Some tornadoes could be strong and long-track (more than 15-20 mile path length).

TIMING: There will be a round of storms ongoing Saturday morning in North and Central Alabama. These storms could have an impact on afternoon development, but we do not think they will be enough to stop the threat later in the day.

A rough estimate of a timeline would start our "main" event as early as 11 a.m. Saturday and it could last through 1 a.m. Sunday. This will be a long-duration severe weather threat.

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IMPACTS: A system like this has the potential to be a higher-end severe weather threat in Alabama and Mississippi. Both supercells (individual rotating severe storms) and a squall line are possible in this kind of environment. Forecast guidance suggests the risk strong tornadoes, EF-2 or higher.

Be sure you have at least two reliable ways to get warnings and know what your plan will be if a severe storm approaches.

Confidence: We have an unusually high confidence in the outcome of Saturday's storm system because of the balanced look it shows in forecast model guidance.

The setup has been presented in a very consistent manner showing the right balance of fuel (CAPE, instability) interacting with a strongly "sheared" environment (wind speed increasing and changing direction above the ground).

These factors will likely make Saturday's threat a "classic" severe weather setup for the South:

(1) A strong jet stream in the right position.

(2) A small but strengthening area of low pressure near Interstate 40 from Memphis to Nashville and a very strong "low level jet" (strong burst of wind about a mile above the surface).

There are always things that can disrupt systems like this. Right now, we do not see anything that looks like a clear failure point. If it does come in balanced as we expect, this could be a very rough day in Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia.

The "Energy Helicity Index" shows just how balanced this looks. What does it mean?

Think of it this way: if storms are happening in an environment like this, they have a high chance of being severe and capable of producing tornadoes.

These two rounds of rain and storms also provide some hefty rainfall totals, and it could be enough for some flooding with isolated spots getting more than 2 to 3 inches.

AFTER THE STORMS

The weather behind Saturday’s storm system improves greatly by Sunday afternoon. It will be much cooler with a stiff northwest wind. Daytime highs will only reach the middle 60s on Sunday and Monday, and it will get as cold as the 30s with some scattered frost by Monday morning.

Our next chance of substantial rain will come Wednesday of next week, but that one does not have a "severe" look to it.

For the latest weather coverage for your area, click here. And stay updated with alerts in the WVTM 13 app. You can download it here.