Excessive heat, poor air quality, and scattered storms in Alabama's future

Blazing heat builds into Alabama this week with near-record temperatures in the 100s and a heat index close to 110 degrees. Some heavy summer storms break the heat wave by the first of next week. Check the video forecast for the latest.AIR QUALITY ALERT WEDNESDAYBirmingham’s high Tuesday topped out at 93°F, and Tuscaloosa hit 94°F. Those numbers exceeded the norm for late June, but we likely add at least 5 to 10 degrees before the week is over. Wednesday does get a little hotter: lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s early, highs in the mid-90s under a sunny sky in the afternoon.The Jefferson County Department of Health issued a ‘Code Orange’ Air Quality Alert for Jefferson and Shelby Counties Wednesday. Code Orange means the ground-level ozone concentration becomes unhealthy for sensitive groups like those with severe allergies, asthma, or lung disease.What’s the science behind that? Ground-level ozone forms when sunlight interacts with air pollution in the air close to the ground; sunlight chemically reacts with nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOC) creating ozone in the air we breathe. Ozone is good in the upper atmosphere; it is not good for us down here because it irritates the lungs leading to breathing trouble.EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH - RARE AIR FOR ALABAMAIt’s been a while since this kind of heat scorched the state. Birmingham last had more than four days above 100°F in 2010; multiple heat waves combined to add up 10 total days above the century mark that year. In 2019 and 2012, we count only four days above 100°F. We also rarely experience a heat index value as high as 110°F: only nine times since heat index has been measured. The highest heat index on record for Birmingham came in 1999: 117°F.An Excessive Heat Watch is in effect Thursday for most of Central and West Alabama.Our forecast through the weekend gives us at least three days that rival record heat and an extreme heat index: Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Thursday’s forecast: 101°F with a heat index around 105-110°F. The record high is 106°F in Birmingham. Friday’s forecast: 103°F with a heat index close to 110°F. Birmingham’s record is 104°F. Saturday’s forecast: 100°F with a heat index around 105°F to 110°F. Birmingham’s record is again 104ׄ°F.Whether we break any records or not, this is a dangerous heat wave. Make sure you hydrate well, stay as cool as possible, and don’t risk heat exhaustion or heat stroke by overdoing it in the hottest part of the day.WHAT ABOUT SOME RAIN?A few summertime downpours would go a long way to help here, but we do not see much chance of significant rain until the weekend. Even then, the storms look somewhat scattered bringing uneven rainfall to Alabama.Any storms that develop could be especially intense on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday bringing strong wind gusts, hail, tremendous rainfall, and intense lightning.THE WEEKEND THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAYThe ridge setting off the heat wave does not have the classic strength of one you might see in August or September, so it starts to erode this weekend into the first part of the week ahead.An active jet stream grinding away the northern side of that ridge helps to fire off several rounds of heavy storms Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Exact timing and placement cannot be known this far in advance, but the situation looks like how this past Sunday played out around Alabama with a few rounds of intense storms bringing hail, strong winds, and frequent lightning.The more scattered storms we get, the more the temperature comes down. At best, it drops us to the upper 80s and lower 90s for highs; at worst, storms would be so few and far between that the heat only backs down to around 95-99°F.A few things to keep in mind about longer-range forecasts: The weather pattern will not change much, but the day-to-day variation in that pattern’s impact on your home, vacation spot, workplace, etc. may change significantly.As we look at Sunday, Monday, and Independence Day next Tuesday, scattered storms and 90s are the norm for Alabama. The questionable part of the forecast is how it will impact a specific point on the map; that won’t be answered for several days.CLICK TO SEE THE 7-DAY FORECAST STAY WEATHER AWAREGet the free WVTM 13 app and turn on the alerts for the latest weather updates in your neighborhood. For the latest Birmingham weather information and central Alabama's certified most accurate forecast, watch WVTM 13 News.Current Weather ConditionsHourly Forecast | 10-Day ForecastInteractive RadarBirmingham SkycamsLive Doppler RadarSign Up For Email Weather AlertsDownload the WVTM 13 AppDon't forget to follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.