November stays very warm but finally gives us a chance of some rain.

Alabama's weather stays very warm this week, but there's finally a chance of more showers in the coming days. Check the video forecast for the latest.MONDAY AND ELECTION DAYThe breeze will keep on blowing for the next few days, and it will only bring a small chance of some showers with it.Monday will be breezy, warm and dry with a high in the upper 70s and a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Occasionally, the wind will gust to around 25 miles per hour from 6 a.m. to 4 p.m.A cold front will approach Alabama on Tuesday, Election Day, but it will weaken considerably as it crosses the state. Clouds will increase ahead of the front, but only isolated showers will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some of those showers could last through Wednesday morning mainly over southeastern Alabama.NOVEMBER’S WARMTH AND SOME RAINNovember started with unusual warmth, with temperatures running about 12 degrees above the climatological average.Average early November temperatures feature highs around 70 degrees and lows in the mid-40s, but "average" does not tell the whole story. This is the beginning of a more active part of the year, in which major swings in temperature can take us from near 80 degrees one day to the 50s, or even the 40s, the next.What is so unusual about the warmth right now is how long it is persisting.This warm weather sticks with us all week, but we can expect a few opportunities for rain:Some spotty, light rain on Tuesday (Election Day)A low chance of isolated, light showers again on Wednesday and Friday.Potentially impactful rain for the upcoming weekend.According to Alabama’s State Climatologist Dr. John Christy, most of the state is in exceptional drought and needs roughly a foot or more of rainfall to recover from the intensifying drought.The rain this week will not be a drought-buster, but it will begin a pattern of at least having rain every week or so throughout the month.POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 18 The National Hurricane Center outlines Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 in the Caribbean Sea ahead of its impacts on Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.This system will likely develop into Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday before impacting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Tropical storm warnings encompass Jamaica, and hurricane watches surround the Cayman Islands. Heavy rain could cause local flooding and mudslides across the regions.Rafael will likely become a Category 1 hurricane as it crosses from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. Still, it will run into drier air and wind shear, weakening the system into a tropical storm.Here are some of the expectations as of now:We do not expect this to be like Helene or Milton in the Gulf. It will not have the same explosive environment that caused those storms to grow so intense.The ultimate track after Thursday and Friday is very unclear as upper air winds increase over the South. The increased “shear” will prevent a powerful storm and could cause some erratic movement resulting in significant forecast changes – especially for inland areas of Alabama.If the storm moves far enough west before the shear gets involved, it would be a bigger rain producer for Alabama this weekend. If the shear catches it earlier than currently expected, it will mean very little rain for most of Alabama on Saturday and Sunday.Regardless of a coastal Alabama landfall, this tropical system will cause a high risk of rip currents for the beaches of Alabama and northwest Florida.FRIDAY AND THE WEEKENDOutside of a few spotty showers, Friday will be yet another abnormally warm, dry early November day. Temperatures will climb to the upper 70s and lower 80s under a partly sunny sky, and the weather for the first round of high school football playoffs will be fantastic, with temperatures falling into the 60s with a gentle east breeze.Alabama's weekend outlook contains a lot of uncertainty, and it all boils down to what happens with the potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.For now, we will tag both Saturday and Sunday with a 20 to 30% chance of meaningful rain. A more westward path of that system will lead to an inch or more of rain on Saturday and Sunday. An eastward path would mean a lot less (if anything at all).We will work to refine the forecast over the next few days to give you some lead time on how rain may impact the weekend weather.Farther down the road, the following week looks a bit cooler. Temperatures return closer to the averages for this time of year, and a cold front could bring in another round of rain and storms around November 13-15.For the latest Birmingham weather information and Central Alabama's certified most accurate forecast, watch WVTM 13 News.Don't forget to follow us on Facebook, X, formerly Twitter, and Instagram.